The 2025 college football playoffs get underway tonight, and before the first round begins, it is crucial to remember that upsets can happen with a moment’s notice in the college football playoffs 2025. It can sometimes feel as if the underdog stands little to no chance of upsetting a top college football school with dozens of 5-star recruits on their roster. However, upsets have been happening all year and will continue into the college football playoffs and the dozens of Bowl games scheduled for the next month.
Biggest College Football Playoff Upsets
1998 Humanitarian Bowl: Idaho (+17) Defeats Southern Mississippi 42-35
The biggest college playoff upset of all time was when Idaho defeated Southern Mississippi as 17 point underdogs in 1998. Idaho quarterback Josh Walsh scored four touchdowns, but the big turning point was the six turnovers generated by the Idaho defense. Idaho was underestimated all season long, with some expert college football predictions giving them low chances of winning a single game in 1998. They finished 9-3 with an all-time upset to cap off a spectacular season.
2013 Fiesta Bowl: UCF (+16.5) Defeats Baylor 52-42
The biggest college football playoff upset in this century was when UCF took down the once mighty Baylor as 16.5 point underdogs. UCF quarterback Blake Bortles threw three touchdowns and ran in for one more as the UCF Knights posted 556 yards of total offense. Despite turning the ball over three times, UCF jumped out to a 14-0 lead, which swelled as high as 52-35 late in the fourth quarter. UCF was 11-1 facing off against 11-1 Baylor, but the gap in class between these two teams was expected to lead to an easy Baylor victory. Bortles was unable to turn his spectacular finish into a lengthy NFL career, but this was a great reminder that anything can happen when making your NCAA football predictions.
2017 National Championship: Clemson (+6.5) Defeats Alabama 35-31
The college football point spread is not as wide for this upset as the others, but there is no doubt it was one of the biggest upsets in the history of the college football playoffs. Alabama beat Clemson the year before 45-40 in the Championship the year before and was expected to cruise to another big victory. Clemson quarterback Deshaun Watson was able to beat freshman Alabama quarterback Jalen Hurts in the championship, both of whom went on to have successful NFL careers. Clemson scored the winning touchdown with just one second left to stun Alabama after overcoming a double-digit fourth quarter deficit.
Biggest College Football Upsets 2024
October 5th: Vanderbilt (+23.5) Defeats Alabama 40-35
One of the most stunning college football upsets of all time occurred this season. Vanderbilt had been dominated by Alabama for the last 30 years before they pulled off an incredible upset. Vanderbilt was 0-60 against teams ranked in the AP poll’s top 5 dating back to 1936 and had lost 23 straight games to Alabama since 1984. Not only that, but the Crimson Tide had dominated Vanderbilt so consistently they hadn’t even been within one score since 2006. All that changed when Vanderbilt jumped out to a 23-7 lead in the second quarter. Alabama came close to bringing it back but was unable to take the lead after Vanderbilt kept piling on the points. Vanderbilt quarterback Diego Pavia threw for 252 yards and played mistake-free football to pull off the incredible upset.
November 30th: Michigan (+19.5) Defeats Ohio State 13-10
The college football 2024 and 2025 seasons did not go well for Michigan, but they ended it off in spectacular fashion. Ohio State’s final game of the season was against longtime rivals Michigan, and they were expected to cruise into the college football playoff. However, a gutsy defensive performance from Michigan had Ohio lawmakers contemplating making it illegal to plant a flag in the middle of a football field. Not only did Michigan beat Ohio State on the scoreboard, but the postgame brawl that ensued made the victory that much sweeter. Michigan had just 62 passing yards in the entire game, but it was still enough to pick up the victory.
Potential College Football Playoff Upsets 2025
There are four first-round college football playoff games that could feature upsets in the expanded college football playoff format. All four matchups have a clear favorite to advance to the quarterfinals, and here are the four matchups ranked from most to least likely to see a playoff upset in 2025. If you want to capitalize on potential college football playoff upsets this season, you can make free college football predictions on Sportzino.
Tennessee (+7.5) at Ohio State
The Tennessee at Ohio State matchup is the most likely college football playoff game in 2025 to feature a big upset. Ohio State’s most recent game was the aforementioned embarrassing loss to Michigan. Tennessee has a strong defense capable of frustrating the Ohio State offense. This game will be at home for Ohio State, but if their offense is stifled early, the Michigan demons could arise and cause Ohio State to crash out of the 2025 college football playoffs dramatically.
SMU (+8.5) at Penn State
Penn State already has a pair of losses this season to the top teams and could not beat anyone in the top 20 of the college football rankings. SMU isn’t the best team in the nation, but Penn State has already shown that when the going gets tough, they may not be able to step up and deliver a victory. This one screams upset potential and could be a great college football prediction to make.
Indiana (+7) at Notre Dame
Notre Dame has been a dominant force this year, and it’s hard to see Indiana disrupting their momentum. They have won ten games in a row, with the last seven coming by multiple touchdowns. They will likely jump out to an early lead and force Indiana to play catch up. An early lead for Indiana could change the game script, but Notre Dame wins this one a large percentage of the time.
Clemson (+11.5) at Texas
Clemson was extremely fortunate to qualify for the college football postseason, and they will not be upsetting Texas in the opening round. Texas has the better offense, the better defense, home-field advantage, and all the momentum heading into the college football playoffs in 2025.
