For the first time, the Larry O’Brien Trophy will be in the building on Thursday night in Indianapolis, as the Oklahoma City Thunder take a 3-2 series lead on the road to face the Indiana Pacers.
On the back of a 40-point performance from Jalen Williams, the Thunder defended home court on Monday night to set themselves up with two chances to close out the series and win their first NBA championship.
Now, a hobbled Pacers team that may not have their star guard, Tyrese Haliburton, have to try and hold serve to send the series back to Oklahoma City for a Game 7. Will they be able to do just that on the home floor, or will the season come to a conclusion on Thursday night?
Ahead of a massive Game 6 battle this Thursday in Indy, check out our Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Indiana Pacers predictions, including our NBA expert picks, NBA odds, with tip off set for June 19 at 8:30 p.m. ET.
Matchup Oklahoma City Thunder vs Indiana Pacers Overview
Teams: Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Indiana Pacers
Date: Thursday, June 19, 2025
Time: 8:30 p.m. ET
Venue: Gainsbridge Fieldhouse
Win Probabilities
The NBA win probabilities have been generated using insights from recent NBA games, combined with expert NBA picks and predictions. The Oklahoma City Thunder are a win away from the championship and have been given a chance to win this NBA game. Meanwhile, the Indiana Pacers are fighting for a Game 7 and have an opportunity to level up the series according to the NBA win probabilities.
check out our full NBA Finals Game 5 Predictions analysis
Projected Final Score
The projected final score anticipates a close game in the Hoosier State, but for the Oklahoma City Thunder to prevail with a final score of Oklahoma City Thunder 122-110 Indiana Pacers.
Expert Prediction: Who Wins?
In Game 4, the Oklahoma City Thunder entered with their backs against the wall. It was just a 2-1 series lead for the Indiana Pacers, but a second straight home win would’ve seen the Thunder in a horrible situation, down 3-1 and without home court advantage.
Instead, Oklahoma City gutted out a win on the road to reclaim home court advantage and level the series. And, after Monday night’s victory, the situation has been flipped completely. Indiana’s out of chances — down 3-2, it’s a now or never spot for the Eastern Conference champions.
This Pacers playoff run has been built on a foundation of the incredible and the unexpected. To count them out would be foolish — and with a young Thunder team in their first close out game in the NBA Finals, the stage is set on an amazing game on Thursday night.
check out our full 2025 NBA Finals Prediction analysis
Why the Oklahoma City Thunder Could Win Game 6
In their narrow Game 4 win in Indiana and then again at home in Game 5, the Oklahoma City Thunder uncovered something that helped them surge back into control of the series—and onto the verge of an NBA championship.
A worn-down, relentlessly pressured Shai Gilgeous-Alexander had effectively stagnated the Thunder offense by seeing less and less help from his co-stars on offense. During Game 4, however, head coach Mark Daigneault began to use two guard Jalen Williams as a primary ball handler more often, allowing Gilgeous-Alexander more rest off ball and time away from the hounding defense of Andrew Nembhard.
While the extra breathing room afforded Gilgeous-Alexander was a massive and obvious boon, it also enabled a strategic quirk and emphasis that has helped Oklahoma City’s offense come alive. The Thunder and coach Daigneault have put a ton of emphasis into pick and rolls between Gilgeous-Alexander and Williams, both with the MVP as the primary ball handler and, more recently, Williams running the offense.
The result has been back to back explosive performances from Williams, games that have not only been the Thunder on the verge of a title but the third-year scorer in the thick of the Finals MVP conversation.
A 27 point night on 44% shooting — despite missing all three of his attempts from deep — in Game 4 was followed up by a fantastic 40 point night in Game 5, in which Williams shot 56% from the field, including 60% from deep.
With Williams well and truly in the offensive fold now, Oklahoma City just needs to sustain the newfound offensive balance. It is already deeper and more talented than the Pacers, with a defensive ability that the Pacers can’t even come close to matching. Provided the Thunder can continue with a more two-pronged offensive attack, it’s challenging to envision Indiana keeping pace and forcing a Game 7.
Why the Indiana Pacers Could Win Game 6
Through five games, one thing has become abundantly clear: under normal conditions, the Indiana Pacers don’t have enough firepower to keep up with the Oklahoma City Thunder. It has required random, unreliable performances from players like T.J. McConnell and Benedict Mathurin to push the Pacers back into frame in various games and quarters.
With Tyrese Haliburton, at best, set to play Game 6 on one leg, it becomes more important than ever for Indiana’s front court to win its matchup. Myles Turner, after a hot postseason, has gone cold in the NBA Finals. Averaging just 13.0 points per game in five games, Turner has faded, been an unreliable shooter, and has seemingly been benched at times.
Pascal Siakam, meanwhile, has run out of gas in various moments, and the Pacers have seen momentum die on the floor while their go-to forward rests on the bench. It has been a maddeningly inconsistent, ineffective series, but Siakam has to muster a big-time scoring game for Indiana to keep pace.
Barring another explosive shooting night from tertiary figures like Obi Toppin, Aaron Nesmith, McConnell, or Mathurin, the Pacers’ route to covering — and potentially outright winning to force a Game 7 — is getting a Finals caliber performance out of Turner and Siakam.
How to Make Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Indiana Pacers Picks
Ready to make picks on the Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Indiana Pacers matchup on Thursday, June 19? Make sure to head over to Sportzino, where you can find every NBA game on the slate this weekend, and so much more!
