After the Oklahoma City Thunder staved off a 3-1 deficit in the NBA Finals with an impressive fourth quarter comeback in Game 4, they’ll return to the Paycom Center with home-court advantage back in their hands for Game 5.
Though the Indiana Pacers delivered punch after punch in Friday night’s Game 4, a string of mistakes saw the game slip away. Now, the underdog Pacers must regroup and try to steal yet another game on the Thunder’s home floor in a pivotal Game 5.
Oklahoma City has played in uncharacteristic fashion throughout these Finals, yet remains in the driver’s seat — setting up a fantastic Game 5.
With the NBA Finals back in Oklahoma on Monday night, check out our Indiana Pacers vs. Oklahoma City Thunder predictions, including our NBA expert picks, with the tip set for June 16 at 8:30 p.m. ET.
Matchup Indiana Pacers vs Oklahoma City Thunder Overview
Teams: Indiana Pacers vs. Oklahoma City Thunder
Date: Monday, June 16, 2025
Time: 8:30 p.m. ET
Venue: Paycom Center
Win Probabilities
The NBA win probabilities have been generated using insights from recent NBA games, combined with expert NBA picks and predictions. The Indiana Pacers are back on the road, without home-court advantage, and as a result, have been given the short end of the stick in terms of their chances to win this NBA game. Meanwhile, the Oklahoma City Thunder have surged back into control and have a chance, according to the NBA win probabilities.
check out our full 2025 NBA Finals Prediction analysis
Projected Final Score
The projected final score anticipates a close game in the Cowboy State, and for the Oklahoma City Thunder to prevail with a final score of Oklahoma City Thunder 123-119 Indiana Pacers.
Expert Prediction: Who Wins?
The NBA Finals’ return to Oklahoma City for Game 5 comes on the heels of a wild Game 4, which saw the Indiana Pacers come oh so close to taking complete control of the series before letting it slip into the Thunder’s hands.
With the Thunder the firm favorite ahead of, and during, the series, their ability to take Game 4 and steal home-court advantage back feels series defining. Not only are the Thunder likely to win on their home floor on Monday night, but the deflating nature of Indiana’s Friday night loss means it wouldn’t be a surprise to see the series end in six games now.
That sort of pressure, and Indiana’s habit of shocking us with the incredible, sets up an incredible game for Monday night. By all measures, Oklahoma City should be expected to win on Monday night and take advantage of the opportunity it has been given. However, the Pacers have achieved the unexpected — repeatedly — up to this point.
All eyes turn to the Pacers and Thunder ahead of the tip-off on Game 5 on Monday night.
check out our full NBA Finals Game 4 Predictions analysis
Why the Indiana Pacers Can Cover
Quite simply, the Indiana Pacers can cover and keep this game close due to an excellent offense that thrives on efficiency and taking care of the ball.
As a team, they ranked ninth in offensive rating during the regular season and have continued to improve in the postseason, boasting the second-best offense by the same metric. At 13.3 turnovers per game, Indiana’s offense finished with the fourth-lowest average in the regular season, and it has hovered around the same mark in the postseason, at 13.7.
For the Thunder, creating turnovers and playing offense in transition is an absolute lifeblood. For as long as Indiana can take care of the ball and maximize every possession, it should be expected to hang around against this ruthless Thunder team. The Pacers’ offense is simply too good and too efficient to lose by a wide margin, provided the turnovers don’t get out of hand.
Although it may not be enough for the Pacers to win on Monday night and regain home-court advantage, it would certainly be enough for them to keep the game close and cover on the road.
Why the Oklahoma City Thunder Can Cover
A curious phenomenon has occurred with the Oklahoma City Thunder’s offense during the NBA Finals. An offense that was, throughout the regular season and playoffs up to this point, lethally efficient and consistent, has seen a considerable change. Turning back the clock to a bygone era of NBA basketball, the Thunder have largely foregone their three-point shooting completely.
In the regular season, Oklahoma City was around league average in the percentage of its shots taken from deep, with 42% of its total shots coming from beyond the arc. Unsurprisingly, with the number of wide-open looks it generated, it was a good shooting team, ranking 10th in the league by hitting 36.6% of its threes.
Then, through the first three rounds of this postseason, the Thunder remained consistent. Across 16 games and three rounds, they averaged 37.4 three-pointers per game — a three-point rate of 40.6% — and were hitting them at just under a 34% clip.
In the opening two games of the NBA Finals, they saw a slight drop, with a three-point rate around 36%, while maintaining good efficiency. As the series swung to Indiana, however, Oklahoma City largely abandoned the deep ball.
Over the last two games, the Thunder have taken just 38 shots from three total — including a playoff low 16 on Friday night, when they hit just three deep balls total.
Though the Pacers have been a great defense against the three ball — they allowed the fifth-lowest three-point rate, at 40.1%, and percentage, at 35.2%, in the league during the regular season — it’s unlikely Oklahoma City continues to struggle to get shots up as it has.
In such an even series, an edge can be found in the slightest positive regression for the Thunder, which could come from deep, where even a return to normal performance beyond the arc could help them edge out the lead.
How to Make NBA Finals Game 5 Predictions Picks
Ready to make picks on the Indiana Pacers vs. Oklahoma City Thunder matchup on Monday, June 16? Make sure to head over to Sportzino, where you can find every NBA game on the slate this weekend, and so much more!
