As the league emerges from the All-Star break and begins the regular season’s second half, the Memphis Grizzlies will travel to Indianapolis to face the Indiana Pacers.
Though the Grizz dropped their last game before the break, they’ll head into the second half of the year in good form. They won 11 of 14 games in the month before the All-Star break and continue to make up for seasons lost due to Ja Morant’s off-court problems.
The Pacers just barely avoided dreadful vibes heading into All-Star. They had lost three of their last five games, including to the Portland Trail Blazers, and needed overtime to defeat the league-worst Washington Wizards.Â
With a cross-conference battle on the schedule this Thursday in the Hoosier State, check out our Memphis Grizzlies vs. Indiana Pacers predictions, including our NBA expert picks, with tip set for February 20 at 7:00 p.m. ET.
Matchup Memphis Grizzlies vs Indiana Pacers Overview
Teams: Memphis Grizzlies vs. Indiana Pacers
Date: Thursday, February 20, 2025
Time: 7:00 p.m. ET
Venue: Gainbridge Fieldhouse
Win Probabilities
The prediction tip for the winner in the game between the Memphis Grizzlies and the Indiana Pacers is the Indiana Pacers.
Projected Final Score
Our predicted final score for this NBA matchup is Indiana Pacers 104-112 Memphis Grizzlies.
Expert Prediction: Who Wins?
There are a couple of headline-grabbing similarities at play here between the Memphis Grizzlies and Indiana Pacers.
Both teams need to continue winning at the same pace they did during the first half of the season to retain a top-four seed in their respective conferences and enjoy home court during the first round of the postseason. Both are led by dynamic young point guards Ja Morant and Tyrese Haliburton, who push the pace for their teams and help define their entertaining styles of play.
Ultimately, it comes back to the notion of style of play. If the adage that styles make fights applies to basketball, we’re in for a fabulous fight in Indiana, with these teams’ styles of play clashing in brilliant contrast.
Why the Memphis Grizzlies Can Cover
Since Ja Morant entered the NBA, he was among the league’s best at getting downhill, penetrating the defense, and finishing at the rim. That has led to Morant being one of the league’s most efficient scorers and, by extension, the Memphis Grizzlies, among the most efficient offenses.
Add in Jaran Jackson Jr.’s size inside, and the ability of Desmond Bane to stretch opposing defenses, and the Grizz can absolutely feast inside. Memphis’s offense ranks seventh over its last 10 games and sixth on the year, but when it comes to scoring inside, few teams are better.
In fact, only the Denver Nuggets and Nikola Jokic, the best player in the world, score more points in the paint per game than the Grizzlies. Morant and his squad average 56.1 points in the paint per game, providing the lifeblood of one of the league’s better offenses.
In that sense, there’s real cause for concern for the Indiana Pacers here. Despite Pascal Siakam being an impactful help defender and possessing the length to disrupt rim attacks, and Myles Turner being a solid rim defender, the Pacers have struggled to defend inside all year. Indiana allows the fourth-most paint points per game, at 50.5, despite both Turner and Siakam enjoying good health this year.
The Pacers are not as deep nor as talented as the Grizzlies. They’ll get stuck in a shootout if they cannot effectively turn off the Grizzlies’ best path to good offense — penetrating the defense and forcing them into rotation. That’s just fine for Memphis, who can outgun the Pacers and cover playing its style of game.
Why the Indiana Pacers Can Cover
A glaring downside to such a commitment to drive and kick offense, like the one the Memphis Grizzlies rely on, is the potential for turnovers. That potential has been realized and then some in the 2024-25 season, as the Grizzlies lead the entire league in turnovers per game, giving up possession an average of 16.4 times per 48 minutes.
That sloppy offense and inability to contain transition opportunities has seen a once proud Grizzlies defense fall to 18th over their last 10 games. Though their half court defense, with Jackson Jr. patrolling inside, remains stout, they’ve been killed in transition. With a league-leading turnover average, Memphis is giving up the ninth most fast break points per game, at 16.1.
The Pacers, with a run and gun, hit ahead passing point guard Tyrese Haliburton and an offensive-minded head coach in Rick Carlise, need no invitation to play on an open floor. On the season, the Pacers are in the top 10 in turnovers forced per game, at 14.9.
With the open floor running of players like Siakam, Obi Toppin, and Benedict Mathurin, as well as the passing range of Haliburton and Andrew Nembhard, they’ve consistently turned those chances into good offense. Indiana is in the top five in the league in fast break points per game, notching an average of 17.2 points a contest in transition.
If Memphis can slow the game down and handle the basketball with a bit more precision than is typically the case, the Pacers are likely to be outdone. Yet, the Memphis team we’ve seen in recent years is unlikely to do that. It’ll continue to play offensively with reckless abandon and gift the Pacers opportunities to play in transition.
With Indiana allowed to play its way on offense, building a wall defensively and forcing anyone besides Morant to beat them will open up a path to not only cover but win outright on the home floor.
How to Make Memphis Grizzlies vs. Indiana Pacers Picks
Ready to make picks on the Memphis Grizzlies vs. Indiana Pacers matchup on Thursday, February 20? Make sure to head over to Sportzino, where you can find every NBA game on the slate this weekend and so much more!
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