A potential first-round playoff series will be previewed on Thursday night in California. The 25-12 Houston Rockets will head west to take on the resurgent 20-19 Sacramento Kings.
The Rockets rode a three-game winning streak through the weekend and now head into a big stretch of their schedule ahead of the All-Star break. Over the next several weeks, Houston is set to face the Nuggets, Grizzlies, the Cavaliers twice, and the Knicks at Madison Square Garden.
First, the Rockets will need to face a Kings team that has found new life in the weeks since firing former Coach of the Year Mike Brown. Once, the veteran-laden Kings squad appeared to be outside of a tight play-in race, but Sacramento has since surged and will present a tough test to Houston.
With an exciting Western Conference clash on the schedule this Thursday in California’s capital, check out our Houston Rockets vs. Sacramento Kings predictions, including our NBA expert picks, with tip set for January 16 at 10:00 p.m. ET.
Houston Rockets vs Sacramento Kings Matchup Overview
Teams: Houston Rockets vs. Sacramento Kings
Date: Thursday, January 16, 2025
Time: 10:00 p.m. ET
Venue: Golden 1 Center
Win Probabilities
The prediction tip for the winner in the game between the Houston Rockets and the Sacramento Kings is the Sacramento Kings.
Projected Final Score
Our predicted final score for this NBA matchup is Sacramento Kings 99-103 Houston Rockets.
Expert Prediction: Who Wins?
The Houston Rockets followed up back-to-back losses at the hands of the Minnesota Timberwolves and Miami Heat by winning four of their next five, and in doing so, they continued a streak that those same Timberwolves—a team the Rockets closely resemble this season—enjoyed last year.
Houston, led by a relentless, proud defensive unit, has still not lost three straight games in the 2024-25 season. That is the sort of consistency found when defense is your calling card. Just ask last year’s Timberwolves, who led the league in defensive rating by a historic margin and didn’t lose three straight games until the second round of the Western Conference playoffs. Houston’s strengths are its defense and consistency, and the former breeds into the latter.
The Sacramento Kings, meanwhile, were adrift and increasingly likely to miss out on the West’s play-in tournament as the calendar turned to 2025. Yet, a surprise firing of then-head coach Mike Brown seemingly saved their season. Since Brown was fired, the Kings have been 7-1 with seven wins in a row. The lone loss came the day of Brown’s firing when the team learned of his firing on the team plane waiting to fly to Los Angeles.
Sacramento’s resurgence has set up an exciting game between the Rockets and Kings, one which could swing in either direction.
Why the Houston Rockets Can Cover
For the Rockets, everything starts with the defense. Head coach Ime Udoka has instilled a great defensive identity in his team, and the team’s perimeter resistance and length have enabled Alperen Sengun to get by as the anchor of it all at center.
Houston, currently ranked in the top three in adjusted defensive rating, has quickly established itself as the most exhausting matchup every night. That’s what happens when the point of attack starts with relentless competitors like Dillon Brooks and the undersized Fred VanVleet. Those guards, however, are just the appetizer to a brutal main course.
In Amen Thompson, Jabari Smith Jr., and Tari Eason, the Rockets have arguably the longest, most versatile, and most disruptive defensive trio on the wing in the entire NBA. Thompson and Eason, in particular, have stood out as likely All-Defensive players. The ability to use length to disrupt the opposition’s stars and make offense so hard to come by has been prevalent all season.
The Rockets are giving up just 1.04 points per possession, a mark that’s bested by just the Oklahoma City Thunder and Orlando Magic. Teams are shooting just 47.6% from the floor against them, which is the second-best mark in the league behind the Thunder. The same is true in the opponent’s effective field goal rate, where Houston’s defensive mark of 51.5% is behind just Oklahoma City.
No matter where on the floor you operate from, the Rockets’ defensive studs will harass you. Against a Kings team with three offensive leaders, all of whom operate from different areas—De’Aaron Fox’s rim attacks, DeMar DeRozan’s mid-range mastery, and Damontis Sabonis’ hub at the elbow—that sort of defensive versatility is crucial. More of the same, standard elite defense from the Rockets will enable them to cover.
Why the Sacramento Kings Can Cover
Not enough can be said about the job the Kings have done to turn their season around when not only the season but also De’Aaron Fox’s commitment appeared to be waning. Interim head coach Doug Christie has done a superb job instilling new life in his team.
During their seven-game win streak, the Kings are enjoying an average scoring margin of +11.1 and have rarely been tested outside an OT thriller against the Miami Heat. The sort of red-hot offense and momentum Sacramento has captured is exactly what it’ll need to score against this Rockets defense.
And, if Sacramento can muster offense against these Rockets, it could be in a position to cover and win outright. Even amid the bad vibes of Brown’s tenure, the Kings had built up a decent defensive backbone. They’re currently on the fringes of the top 10 in adjusted defensive rating, and even with limited personnel, it’s enough to test Houston.
For all the Rockets’ strengths, they remain a mediocre offense. They’re on the outside of the top 10 in adjusted offensive efficiency, but all of their good offense comes from turnovers. That’s evidenced in their true shooting percentage, which is in the bottom three in the entire league.
If Sacramento takes care of basketball, its defense can do enough to make life difficult for Houston and limit what is a very average Rockets offense.
How to Make Houston Rockets vs. Sacramento Kings Picks
Ready to make picks on the Houston Rockets vs. Sacramento Kings matchup on Thursday, January 16? Make sure to head over to Sportzino, where you can find every NBA game on the slate this weekend and so much more!
