What once looked like it was shaping up to be the NBA’s next great rivalry before Ja Morant sabotaged his own ascent will again look to get back on track on Thursday night in the south as the Golden State Warriors face the Memphis Grizzlies.
The full-strength Grizzlies again played a great game against the Dubs earlier this year, in mid-November, in which the Warriors held off the Grizz at home in a five-point win. Since then, Golden State has struggled, while Memphis has continued to try and make up for lost time by marching up the Western Conference.
With a great matchup to look forward to this Thursday at FedEx Forum, check out our Golden State Warriors vs. Memphis Grizzlies predictions, including our NBA expert picks, with tip set for December 19 at 8:00 p.m. ET.
Matchup Golden State Warriors vs Memphis Grizzlies Overview
Teams: Golden State Warriors vs. Memphis Grizzlies
Date: Thursday, December 19, 2024
Time: 8:00 p.m. ET
Venue: FedEx Forum
Win Probabilities
The prediction tip for the winner in the game between the Golden State Warriors and the Memphis Grizzlies is the Memphis Grizzlies. The winner probabilities are 63.64% (Memphis Grizzlies) and 43.48% (Golden State Warriors).
Projected Final Score
Our predicted final score for this NBA matchup is Memphis Grizzlies 110-123 Golden State Warriors.
Expert Prediction: Who Wins?
What began in such a positive fashion has now reached a seriously pivotal point. The Golden State Warriors are heading for a tough two-game road trip against the Memphis Grizzlies and Minnesota Timberwolves.
The Warriors ripped out of the gate this year, sitting comfortably at 12-3 at the 15-game mark. However, the last couple of weeks have not been so kind, with Golden State going an ugly 2-8 over its last 10 games. In perhaps the most damming moment, it saw its 15-game win streak against the Houston Rockets snapped on Saturday, as the Rockets eliminated the Dubs in the NBA Cup semifinals in Las Vegas.
Now, the Warriors will try to recapture some semblance of positivity this season against a one-time rival. And, despite the Warriors’ recent struggles, there’s a great opportunity to do just that.
Curiously, for a Golden State team that can always manufacture some offense with the telepathic two-man game between Steph Curry and Draymond Green, it’s offensively where improvement is needed. The Dubs have slipped to the fringe of the top 10 in the NBA in adjusted offensive rating and have become starved for non-Curry production.
Though Andrew Wiggins is having another typical, quietly relatively productive season, averaging just under 18 points per game, it’s not enough for a second weapon on offense. Not when sharpshooter Buddy Hield has gone a touch cold recently after he came out of the gates playing the best basketball of his career.
With Hield and Brandin Podziemski failing to rise to the levels needed recently, Golden State turned to the trade market and acquired journeyman Dennis Schroder. The German point guard has been playing outstanding basketball for the Brooklyn Nets this year – likely being dealt due to the Nets’ clear-eyed tankers – and he should have an instant impact in non-Curry minutes.
Not only can Schroder score himself, but he also has a genuinely good feel for creation for his teammates, too. That proved true early in Brooklyn this season, with the Nets exceeding expectations in an efficiency sense on the offensive end. That’s welcome news for the Dubs, who have slipped to the bottom 10 in the league in true shooting percentage and need help creating easier looks.
A little extra oomph offensively will come at the right time for the Warriors, with the Memphis Grizzlies’ defense turning back the clock this year. The Grizzlies have grit and grind their way to fifth in the league in adjusted defensive rating, which has helped to buoy them to a +5.72 net rating. Between Jaren Jackson Jr., Marcus Smart, and Scottie Pippen Jr., the Grizz have a trio of legitimately high-impact defenders to rely on.
And, despite big man Jaren Jackson Jr. not being tethered to a veteran big man this season, he has done an excellent job of staying out of foul trouble, which has always limited his potential for sky-high defensive impact. Jackson Jr.’s averaging just over three fouls per game this year but has recently slipped back into sloppy play.
Jackson Jr.’s last six games have seen him average nearly four fouls per game and foul out twice, including in the Grizzlies’ most recent game (a six-point loss to the inferior Los Angeles Lakers). It’s bad timing for that sort of skid — whether it points to a longer-term regression or just a rough couple of weeks.
If any two players in the NBA are capable of exploiting an over-eager defender, it’s Steph Curry and Draymond Green. That iconic pair will be able to attack Jackson Jr. repeatedly in the two-man game and put him into a conflict to foul. While Smart and Pippen Jr. will offer some resistance at the point of attack, Schroder’s addition is huge for Golden State. With 48 minutes of genuine point guard play, it can continue to attack downhill and work to limit Jackson Jr.’s minutes.
With the hyperefficient Ja Morant in control of the offense, we’d expect the Grizzlies to be able to keep pace with the Warriors early on. The two teams’ offensive metrics are quite similar, with the Dubs 10th and the Grizzlies ninth in adjusted offensive rating and the Grizz a few tenths higher in true shooting percentage (again, a nod to Morant’s efficiency).
Defensively, however, we expect the Warriors to have a greater chance of maintaining their level compared to Jackson Jr. and the Grizzlies defense. In such a tight matchup, that’s the difference.
Current Golden State Warriors vs. Memphis Grizzlies Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
| Golden State Warriors | +130 | +3.5 (-110) | O235.5 (-115) |
| Memphis Grizzlies | -175 | -3.5 (-120) | U235.5 (-115) |
How to Make Golden State Warriors vs. Memphis Grizzlies Picks
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