Only four teams remain in the NFL playoffs after a Divisional Round weekend that delivered upsets, drama, and endless excitement.
Now, with the field thinned down to a pair of games, this weekend is must-watch action. One game, however, stands out as the main event as the latest chapter in an epic Buffalo Bills and Kansas City Chiefs rivalry is set to take place. Luckily, our AFC Championship expert predictions are here to help you.
When you’re ready to make free 2025 NFL AFC Championship predictions of your own, make sure to stick to Sportzino! With moneyline NFL odds, totals, spreads, and player props, Sportzino has everything you need for 2025 NFL AFC Championship predictions.
The Best Expert Picks for the 2025 NFL AFC Championship
Game 1: Bills at Chiefs
- Spread: Chiefs -2 (-120)
- Moneyline: Bills +100/Chiefs -140
- Over/Under: 47.5 (-120)
- Time: January 26 at 6:30 p.m. ET
In recent seasons, a meeting between the Buffalo Bills and Kansas City Chiefs, regardless of their respective performance levels, has consistently resulted in exciting moments. This will be the ninth meeting between Mahomes and Allen, and in the previous eight, they’ve combined for more than 47 points five times—including as recently as this regular season.
In both of the Bills’ playoff games so far and the Chiefs’ sole postseason game, their offenses have seemingly levelled up with extremely efficient performances. Mahomes and Allen, and their respective offenses, are playing at a high level right now. Expecting more of the same would be wise with a trip to the Super Bowl on the line.
Pick: Over 47.5 (-110)
NFL Player Prop Predictions
Part of Josh Allen’s completely dominant style of play, which is fairly rare for his position, is his ability to pull the ball down and run as the biggest player on the field. He used that threat to great effect this season and went over his rushing yards total for Sunday, 47.5, in five games and had another pair of games with 46 and 44 rushing yards, respectively.
In big games and big moments, Josh Allen doesn’t shy away from using his great running ability and tremendous size to create extra yardage on the ground. In five regular season games against the Chiefs, he has averaged 44.0 yards rushing and ripped off 55 yards against them in a heroic victory in Week 11 of this season. Even last week, when the The Baltimore Ravens limited him to 20 yards rushing, he got into the end zone twice with his legs.
Against a Chiefs defense that will send extra rushers and do all they can to disguise coverage and confuse Allen, I’d expect the MVP candidate to pull the ball down and take off not infrequently. In 12 career playoff games, Allen has rushed for more than 47 yards in seven games—and hit 46 in another. In the biggest game of his career, I expect Allen to hit double-digit rush attempts and, as a result, top his rushing yards total here.
Pick: Josh Allen Over 47.5 rushing yards (-125)
NFL Score Predictions
Adding onto the pick of Over on the AFC Championship game’s total, I’m also happy to take the Over on the total touchdowns line of 5.5. In addition to it being a purely logical play, in tandem with the Over, there’s also the notion that the game will come down to the wire.
As these teams have proven repeatedly in recent years, they’ll get dragged into shootouts against one another and strike again and again, with both Allen and Mahomes capable of the truly incredible. Buffalo’s 30-21 win in November featured seven touchdowns. With greater chances, expect even greater offense.
Pick: Over 5.5 total touchdowns (+105)
NFL Moneyline Predictions
Both the Buffalo Bills and the Kansas City Chiefs have been hurtling toward this game, and this matchup, all season long.
For the Bills, who have already suffered three playoff losses to the Chiefs in this era, they are desperate to finally overcome the AFC’s dominant team and remove a persistent obstacle from their path.
For the Chiefs, it is a chance to not only further reaffirm their status as the conference and league’s dominant team but also a chance at becoming the first team to win three Super Bowls in a row. The chances are phenomenal.
It’s so fitting that the two superstars at the heart of it, Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes, enter Sunday 4-4 against one another. It will also be fitting, however, when the Bills win—because it has been coming all season and will be incredibly deserved.
Though Kansas City was the 15-2 team and the number one seed in the AFC, it felt like it was the Bills and Baltimore Ravens who really stood out all year.
The Bills finished third in offensive Expected Points added; the Chiefs finished 11th. The Bills’ defense was 12th in defensive EPA, while the Chiefs were 14th. Buffalo finished the regular season fourth in total DVOA, while Kansas City was just eighth. Even in scoring margin, it was the Bills who had the second-best weekly average at +9.6, while Kansas City was down in 11th at +3.8—behind five teams that went one-and-done in the postseason.
The Bills are the superior team, and the NFL odds here suggest oddsmakers agree in a neutral-field game. Though the AFC Championship is at Arrowhead, a hostile ground for the Bills, I still expect the Bills to finally win.
Pick: Bills (+100)
NFL Against the Spread Predictions
Despite our full expectation that the Buffalo Bills will overcome their long-standing rivals, the Kansas City Chiefs, and advance to the Super Bowl on Sunday, I am equally comfortable predicting on them at +2 as a precautionary measure.
With total regularity, these two AFC foes have played extremely tight contests that come down to the fourth quarter, the final possession, or the final play. One-score games are the norm for the Chiefs and Bills, and with a Super Bowl appearance on the line, it should be a more tense and tightly contested affair than ever.
Pick: Bills +2 (-120)
