Atlanta Falcons vs Las Vegas Raiders Predictions

The NFL’s Monday night doubleheader returns in Week 15 with a cross-conference clash between the Atlanta Falcons and the Las Vegas Raiders from the desert.

The Falcons, 6-7, have found themselves in a backslide and suddenly out of the playoff picture. They have been surpassed by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in a lowly NFC South race. Monday night represents a great chance for them to regain some momentum in the divisional race.

That’s partly due to their opponent, a lowly and lost Raiders team that, at 2-11, seems to make mistakes as often as they cycle quarterbacks. There has been very little to cheer about in Las Vegas in Antonio Pierce’s first season as a head coach, but perhaps a struggling Atlanta team can be upset fodder.    

With a doubleheader wrapping up in Las Vegas on Monday night, check out our Atlanta Falcons vs. Las Vegas Raiders predictions, including our NFL picks against the spread, with kickoff set for December 16 at 8:00 p.m. ET. 

Matchup Atlanta Falcons vs Las Vegas Raiders Overview

Teams: Atlanta Falcons vs. Las Vegas Raiders

Date: Monday, December 16, 2024

Time: 8:00 p.m. ET

Venue: Allegiant Stadium

Current Atlanta Falcons vs. Las Vegas Raiders Odds

Why the Atlanta Falcons Can Cover

The Kirk Cousins era seemed to begin so brightly for the Atlanta Falcons. Early in November, the Falcons were 6-3, atop the NFC South, and had enjoyed dramatic comeback wins against the Philadelphia Eagles and Tampa Bay Buccaneers. 

Since then, however, the wheels have come off. Atlanta’s on a four-game losing skid, and questions around Kirk Cousins — and, by extension, Michael Penix Jr. — are getting more and more frequent. Worse still, its defense has been utterly lost, and despite first-year units often requiring time to gel, it has shown no signs of improvement as the season has gone on.  

Despite Cousins’ struggles and inability to move, the Falcons’ defensive woes, and their current situation, this week is a great opportunity. While the Falcons are middling and looking more and more likely to allow the NFC South to slip out of their grasp, the Raiders have performed at a level well below that of Atlanta.

A classic trademark of a poorly coached team, which the Raiders most certainly are, is a penchant for allowing opponents to make explosive plays. Las Vegas has been guilty of just that this year. Though its defensive rank in yards allowed per drive is a respectable 13th in the league, at 30.4, it’s allowing the sixth-most points per drive, at 2.38. 

So, while Cousins’ lack of mobility is going to be a glaring weakness against a pass rusher like Maxx Crosby, the Falcons should be able to manufacture explosive plays. Cousins is flanked by weapons whose dynamism is the antithesis of 2024 Kirk Cousins, with Bijan Robinson, Drake London, and Darnell Mooney all a threat to bust off explosive plays whenever they touch the ball.

With uncertainty circling Las Vegas’s quarterback position ahead of Monday night — Aidan O’Connell has been in doubt all week but may start over former Falcon Desmond Ridder — it won’t require a ton of fireworks from Atlanta’s offense to cover. Even with the Dirty Birds giving four points to the Raiders, 21 points should be enough to cover here. 

Cousins and the Falcons have met or topped that mark of 21 in seven of their 13 games this year and will likely make it eight in 14 in Las Vegas.  

Why the Las Vegas Raiders Can Cover

As is often the case with such a bad team, the Las Vegas Raiders’ route to covering against a superior opponent is for that opponent to lose to itself. And, as luck would have it for Las Vegas, the Falcons have been highly capable of that lately.

The Falcons have totaled 39 drives during their current four-game losing streak, excluding end-of-half kneel-downs. Unpacking those 39 drives reveals a team that is underperforming and beating itself up through mental errors.

There’s been eight picks by Cousins, including a highly uncharacteristic four-pick game against the Los Angeles Chargers. Similarly uncharacteristic have been the struggles of the typically reliable kicker, Younghoe Koo. Koo has missed four kicks in four games, representing a tough year for him.    

As an offense, Atlanta’s not in a position to be giving away possessions with missed kicks or turnovers, either. A struggle for the Falcons all season long has been finishing off drives despite Cousins’ methodical operation of the unit. 

While Atlanta is a highly competent fourth in yards per drive, averaging 36.3 per possession, finishing drives off has been a huge struggle. The Falcons are middling in points per drive, with their possession average of 2.01, which ranks them just 15th in the NFL. That’s a considerable discrepancy between yards and points per drive, which opens up a window of opportunity for the Raiders.

If Atlanta’s mental errors — be it turnovers from Cousins or missed kicks by Koo — continue, it’ll put it in a position where it has to capitalize on its positive drives. And, if those persist as they have with a middling output of points, the underdog Raiders will be able to stick around. 

Regardless of who is under center for the Raiders or how poorly they continue to manage games, a sloppy game from their opponent could require Cousins to make another game-winning drive, likely allowing Las Vegas to cover.

Atlanta may do enough to avoid losing to itself against its lowly AFC West foe, but it may play with fire and allow the Raiders to hang around until the final whistle. 

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