Introduction
The 2024-25 Premier League season will come to an end this weekend, and one of the world’s great soccer venues will see a battle with significant implications for the home side, as Newcastle United hosts Everton.
A loss last weekend, away to Arsenal, means Newcastle’s place in next year’s Champions League is still at risk. Thanks to a superior goal difference, three points on Sunday would cement the Magpies’ place after a year outside of European competition.
Everton will be looking to play spoilers. They have surged toward mid-table after the return of David Moyes on the touchline. With Sunderland-born Jordan Pickford between the sticks for the Toffees, the motivation to derail Newcastle’s ambitions will be high.
Ahead of a season finale in the Northeast of England on Sunday, May 25, at 11:00 a.m. ET, check out our Premier League odds and Newcastle vs. Everton prediction at the Sportzino sportsbook.
Newcastle vs Everton Match Preview
Incredible form over the second half of the season vaulted Newcastle into the top four. Still, they have stumbled in recent weeks to bring their Champions League qualification hopes down to the final day. They have earned seven points from a possible 15 over their last five matches, with a loss to Arsenal last weekend ramping up the pressure. The incredible Alexander Isak leads the line for Newcastle, with 23 goals this season.
For Everton, the last five games have seen good form and an epic goodbye to Goodison Park. Out of a possible 15 points, Everton have taken seven, including a 2-0 win against Southampton last weekend. They are led by Iliman Ndiaye, who has scored nine goals in the league.
Newcastle vs Everton Head-to-Head
The last 10 matches between Newcastle and Everton have been relatively equal. From January 2020 to the present, Newcastle has won five, drawn three, and lost twice to Everton.
Key Stats
Last season’s Entertainers, Eddie Howe’s Newcastle United, have continued to be a rapid attacking team this season. They have scored 68 goals across 37 matches, which is second only to title-winning Liverpool in the league. They have, however, faltered defensively, with their 46 goals conceded just eighth among Premier League sides.
Though this year has been a story of two Evertons, their defensive stability has transcended the two iterations. With just 44 goals conceded, the Toffees have a superior goals record to Newcastle. They do, however, have considerably less attacking output. Their 41 goals scored are better than just the three relegation-bound teams in Southampton, Ipswich Town, and Leicester City.
St. James’ Park has remained a formidable fortress for Newcastle United this year, with 12 wins — the second-highest in the league — and an average points return of 2.11 per match. Everton have been average away from Goodison Park, with a 1.17 points per match return around mid-table.
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Newcastle vs Everton Predicted Lineups
Newcastle predicted Xl: Pope; Krafth, Schar, Burn, Livramento; Guimaraes, Tonali, Miley; Murphy, Isak, Barnes.
Everton predicted Xl: Pickford; Coleman, Keane, O’Brien, Mykolenko; Gueye, Garner; Ndiaye, Doucoure, McNeil; Beto.
Prediction Tips
FT Result
From Cup finals to showdowns against the Premier League’s top sides, a consistent theme from Howe’s Newcastle United is showing up on the big occasions. At home, on the season’s final day, with Champions League qualification up for grabs, is precisely the kind of big occasion they love. With the rabid support of St. James’ Park behind them, it would be an astonishing turn of events should Newcastle fail to win on Sunday.
The Magpies have won 12 home games this season and scored 40 goals in those 18 home matches. In contrast, Everton have lost seven matches away from home and dropped points on six occasions. Newcastle United have shown a habit of blowing teams away with intensity at home, and Sunday will be the latest example.
Pick: Newcastle United moneyline (-325)
Both Teams To Score
By most metrics, Newcastle’s attack has been second to just Liverpool at home this season. Howe’s team has averaged 2.2 goals per game at home, from an xG of 1.76. While, due to injuries to both their backline and goalkeeper, Newcastle’s defensive record this season has been inconsistent, they have also put in numerous strong performances, with 17 clean sheets across all competitions.
With the implications at play greater than ever, a stellar defensive performance should be expected — even more so when considering Everton’s lack of menace in attack. Away from Goodison Park, Everton averages just 0.83 goals per game from an xG of 0.98.
Everton will fail to beat Nick Pope’s goal on Sunday.
Pick: Both Teams to Score – No (-115)
Over/Under
For all of Newcastle United’s heroics at home, and the way in which the crowd and intensity of the team’s press can create a quicksand effect for opponents, the goal line of 3.5 is a tall task for Newcastle to break.
Everton goalkeeper Jordan Pickford will be the most motivated opposition player on the pitch, with his personal rivalry with Newcastle a part of his DNA. More tangibly, David Moyes has established a team with a stable defensive record.
Even away from home, Everton has remained challenging to break through. They’ve conceded an average of 1.16 goals per game, from an xGA of 1.23. Unless it’s one of those days on Tyneside, where a quick start turns into a tsunami, it’s safe to expect the Under on a 3.5 goal line.
Pick: Under 3.5 (-180)
Score Prediction
With a Newcastle victory looking likely but not one of the overwhelming type, a certain kind of match becomes increasingly likely.
Everton will be rigid and defensively rugged, forcing Newcastle to work and create heaps of chances to break through, which they likely should take a lead.
As the game progresses and Everton begin to stretch and open themselves up to seek an equalizer, Newcastle’s desperation to win and dynamic counter-attacking ability will be able to punish the visitors. It’ll be a cagey affair, but ultimately, an insurance goal will be found as Newcastle win by two goals and secure a place in next season’s Champions League.
Pick: Newcastle United 2-0 (+600)
Final Thoughts
Ready to make picks on the Newcastle vs. Everton matchup on Sunday, May 25? Make sure to head over to Sportzino.com, where you can find every soccer game on the slate this weekend, and so much more!
