Girona vs Atletico Madrid Introduction
The 2024-25 La Liga campaign will end this weekend, and Catalonia will see a battle from opposite ends of the table as third-place Atletico Madrid visits 15th-place Girona.
Atletico never quite emerged in a La Liga title race this year, and with no team below them or the powers of Real Madrid and FC Barcelona pushing upward, Diego Simeone’s side were able to sit third for most of the season comfortably.
Girona, meanwhile, earned a pair of wins over the last month to secure their status in the league next season. Though some relegation concerns arose during the season, they pulled themselves clear and could finish as high as 13th with the right results on Sunday.
Ahead of a season finale in Catalonia on Sunday, May 25, at 8:00 a.m. ET, check out our La Liga odds and Girona vs. Atletico Madrid prediction at the Sportzino sportsbook.
Girona vs Atletico Madrid Match Preview
In their last five matches, Girona has secured its place in La Liga next season amid a relegation fight. They earned seven points from a possible 15 over their previous five matches, with a game against last-place Valladolid just what was needed to swing momentum. Veteran Uruguayan striker Cristhian Stuani leads the line for Girona, with 11 goals on the season.
Atletico Madrid’s season-long form has continued in the last five games. Out of a possible 15 points, Atleti has taken 10, including a 4-1 win against Real Betis last weekend. The club is led by its phenomenal striker pairing of Alexander Sorloth and Julian Alvarez, who have scored 17 goals apiece.
Girona vs Atletico Madrid Head-to-Head
The last 10 matches between Girona and Atletico Madrid have been one-way affairs, with Diego Simeone’s men dominating affairs. Dating back to January 2018, Atletico Madrid has won five, drawn four, and lost just once to Girona.
Girona vs Atletico Madrid Key Stats
To the surprise of no one, Diego Simeone’s Atletico Madrid have maintained a stellar defensive record this season. They’ve allowed 30 goals across 37 matches, which is second to an excellent Bilbao side. With the added firepower up top, however, Atleti have been a strong attacking side too, with their 64 goals the fourth-most in the league.
Girona haven’t struggled in attack either this season, with 44 goals across 37 matches. Defensively, however, they have been weak from wire to wire, with 56 goals conceded—the third-highest mark in the league.
As Girona wraps up their home fixtures on Sunday, they’ll seek an eighth home win on the campaign. Their return of 1.33 points per home match has powered their survival in the league this season. Atleti, meanwhile, will look to win their eighth match away from home on the season, with a quality return of 1.5 points per match on the road.
Girona vs Atletico Madrid Predicted Lineups
Girona predicted Xl: Vladyslav; Martinez, Frances, Krejci, Blind; Herrera, Solis; Tsyhankov, Martin, Asprilla; Stuani.
Atletico Madrid predicted Xl: Oblak; Llorente, Le Normand, Lenglet, Galan; Lino, Koke, De Paul, Simeone; Alvarez, Sorloth.
Girona vs Atletico Madrid Prediction Tips
FT Result
Though neither side has any meaningful thing to play for on Sunday, with Atletico Madrid firmly in third and Girona having avoided relegation already, the question of motivation never comes into play when Diego Simeone is on the touchline. Atleti’s obsessive manager will have his side ready to play and desperate to win, regardless of the circumstances.
With Atleti’s laser focus and intensity now zeroed in on Girona on the final day, there’s no reason to doubt the league’s third-place team. Atletico are in better form than Girona, and have taken a higher points return away from Madrid than Girona have at home. Simeone and company will end the season on a high.
Pick: Atletico Madrid moneyline (-118)
Both Teams To Score
Girona has created chances at a fairly decent rate at home this season. Across 18 home matches, they’ve averaged 1.5 goals per game from an Expected Goals (xG) mark of 1.43. However, they will face one of the country’s toughest tests in Atleti’s defense and the fantastic play of Jan Oblak.
Away from Madrid, Atleti have conceded just an average of 0.83 goals per game, with an Expected Goals Against (xGA) of 1.04. That defensive intensity and focus simply will not falter at season’s end.
I expect Simeone to have his team at its absolute best, and that means a suffocating defensive performance.
Pick: Both Teams to Score – No (+136)
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Over/Under
Despite Atletico Madrid’s tremendous defensive level, Sunday’s Over/Under line is set at 3.5, putting the onus on Simeone’s side.
Despite their attacking talent, with Alexander Sorloth and Julian Alvarez aided by Antoine Griezmann and Angel Correa, they haven’t overwhelmed teams in attack this season. Away from Madrid, Atleti average 1.2 goals per game with an xG of 1.17.
Girona, meanwhile, has performed better defensively when at home. They’ve conceded an average of 1.4 goals per game at home but have seemingly been unlucky, as that figure comes from an xGA of 1.20.
Barring a complete collapse from the home side on the last day of the season, it’s safe to expect the Under on a 3.5 goal line.
Pick: Under 3.5 (-180)
Score Prediction
Atletico Madrid have enjoyed a fluidity in attack all season, with an outrageous amount of riches going forward. But, they are still a Simeone-led side, which means defensive stability and eking out results are at their core.
On the season, Alteti has eight victories by a 1-0 scoreline. With no massive motivating factor on either side — with Atleti secure in third and Girona safe from relegation — I’d expect a fairly routine 90 minutes from both sides.
With Atletico Madrid, the much better side, they’ll be able to dominate possession and see out the game how they want. After a 3-0 win over Girona at home in match week two, the Catalans will keep it closer but still fall to end the season.
Pick: Atletico Madrid 1-0 (+900)
Girona vs Atletico Madrid Final Thoughts
Ready to make picks on the Girona vs. Atletico Madrid matchup on Sunday, May 25? Make sure to head over to Sportzino.com, where you can find every soccer game on the slate this weekend, and so much more!
