Bowl season is nearly set to get underway in earnest, with New Year’s Eve and New Year’s Day classically loaded with exciting college football matchups. To help close out 2025, a pair of historic programs in the Citrus Bowl: the Michigan Wolverines take on the Texas Longhorns.
Since they last played, the Michigan Wolverines have been in the thick of drama that has included a head coach’s firing and subsequent arrest, followed by a drawn-out coaching search that ended with a controversial hire.
The Texas Longhorns, meanwhile, have only had to wrestle with the denial of a place in the College Football Playoff. Otherwise, it has been an uplifting few weeks, with quarterback Arch Manning making the unsurprising decision to return to Texas for the 2026 season.
With the Citrus Bowl on the slate this Wednesday in Orlando, check out our Michigan Wolverines vs. Texas Longhorns predictions, including a detailed NCAAF prediction and our college football expert picks, with kickoff set for December 31 at 3:00 p.m. ET.
Matchup Michigan Wolverines vs Texas Longhorns Overview
Teams: Michigan Wolverines vs. Texas Longhorns
Date: Wednesday, December 31, 2025
Time: 3:00 p.m. ET
Venue: Camping World Stadium
Win Probabilities
The NCAAF win probabilities have been generated using insights from recent NCAAF games, along with expert college football picks and predictions, and they provide context for the latest NCAAF odds.
The Michigan Wolverines have been given a 56.5% chance to win this bowl game. Meanwhile, the Texas Longhorns have a 43.5% chance according to the college football win probabilities.
Projected Final Score
The projected final score anticipates a close game in the Sunshine State, but for the Texas Longhorns to prevail, 28-14 over the Michigan Wolverines.
Expert Prediction: Who Wins?
In the modern college football landscape, the lead-up to and preparation for a bowl game can be messy. Players will opt out to prepare for the draft or simply to protect their health in what may be seen as a largely meaningless bowl game. Others will transfer out, leaving a team shorthanded.
But, as far as bowl game prep goes, it doesn’t get much worse than the past few weeks for the Michigan Wolverines. An investigation into former head coach Sherrone Moore led to his firing and, later, to his arrest for his actions after his dismissal.
Interim head coach Biff Poggi offered a damming evaluation of where the program is, while the Wolverines’ athletic director faced calls for his job. Oh, and in between all that, the school settled on 66-year-old Kyle Whittingham as its next permanent head coach.
Unsurprisingly, then, in the weeks since the Citrus Bowl was announced, American football odds have shifted, and the line has moved further away from Michigan by three points. Against a Texas Longhorns team looking to end a disappointing season on a high note, especially the ever-improving Arch Manning, the Wolverines face a tall task—but the chance of them keeping it close leaves a fascinating matchup at play.
Why the Michigan Wolverines Can Cover
It has been a truly hideous month in Ann Arbor and, by extension, the Michigan Wolverines football program. But sometimes that can have a galvanizing effect, as the team rallies together. That’s the Wolverines’ best hope of keeping things close in Orlando on New Year’s Eve.
Nearly as touted as Arch Manning, Bryce Underwood has not had a successful freshman season. The Michigan native threw for just nine touchdowns versus six interceptions with just over 2,000 yards passing this season, as he looked overmatched in nearly every game.
But the five-star recruit is oozing physical talent, and with the drama surrounding the Michigan program, he has been freed from the pressure of being an in-state talent—if only for this game. In a game that significantly favors Texas, after a dramatic month, there’s an opportunity for Underwood to cut it loose and play with a freedom that was missing all season long.
As one of the most rawly talented quarterbacks in the nation, Underwood could end 2025 on a high and set a marker ahead of a pivotal sophomore season for himself—and keep the Wolverines close to Texas in the process.
- ALSO CHECK OUT: Alabama vs Oklahoma Prediction
Why the Texas Longhorns Can Cover
For the Texas Longhorns, the Citrus Bowl will be a test of entitlement and motivation. Despite a season-ending win over the Texas A&M Aggies, the Longhorns were controversially left out of the 12-team College Football Playoff—and let their feelings be known.
Despite Texas’s belief it should have been included, it was not, and its consolation is a highly winnable game against the messy Wolverines. The Longhorns’ placement could easily go in a negative direction, with a team largely checked out by disappointment failing to show up in Orlando this week. But there’s good reason to believe that won’t be the case.
No player better represents the up-and-down nature of the Longhorns’ 2025 season like Arch Manning. Just a few short months ago, the latest in a line of football royalty was seen as a possible first overall pick in the 2026 NFL Draft—if he chose to declare—and a Heisman Trophy favorite. By extension, Texas was seen as a genuine national championship contender.
Instead, Manning struggled mightily out of the gate, starting with a brutal showing in the opening game of the season against the Ohio State Buckeyes. Manning’s slump extended into October until, slowly but surely, he began to make tangible improvements and show genuine development.
While it wasn’t enough to salvage Texas’s hopes for the ‘25 season, or Manning’s Heisman candidacy, it was enough to promise an exciting future in ‘26 and potentially beyond. To fully capture that excitement and carry it into his third season in Austin, Manning needs to deliver a strong showing in the Citrus Bowl and lead Texas to a bowl game victory.
A motivated Texas Longhorns team should blow these Michigan Wolverines away. With an ever-improving Manning under center, the Longhorns have reason to be motivated.
Current Michigan Wolverines vs. Texas Longhorns Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
| Michigan Wolverines | -130 | -115 | +220 |
| Texas Longhorns | -110 | -125 | -350 |
How to Make Michigan Wolverines vs. Texas Longhorns Picks
Ready to make picks on the Michigan Wolverines vs. Texas Longhorns matchup on Wednesday, December 31? Make sure to head over to Sportzino.com, a free Sportsbook where you can find every NBA game on the slate this weekend, and so much more!
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