Two of the top three picks in the 2024 NFL Draft will meet to open their respective teams’ preseason schedules on Friday night, as Jayden Daniels and the Washington Commanders visit Drake Maye and the New England Patriots.
While Washington had a long postseason run last year and is looking to run it back, New England’s starting anew under head coach Mike Vrabel — is it reflected in the NFL odds? Find our full NFL predictions and American football odds in the Sportzino free sportsbook!
With a cross-conference preseason clash on the slate this Friday in Foxborough, check out our Washington Commanders vs. New England Patriots predictions, including our NFL expert picks, with kickoff set for August 8 at 7:30 p.m. ET.
Matchup Washington Commanders vs New England Patriots Overview
Teams: Washington Commanders vs. New England Patriots
Date: Friday, August 8, 2025
Time: 7:30 p.m. ET
Venue: Gillette Stadium
Win Probabilities
The NFL win probabilities have been generated using insights from recent NFL games in combination with expert NFL picks and predictions. The Washington Commanders are fresh off an NFC Championship game appearance, and have been given a 29.8% chance to win this NFL game. Meanwhile, the New England Patriots have reset under Mike Vrabel and have a 74.4% chance according to the NFL win probabilities.
Projected Final Score
The projected final score anticipates a close game in the northeast, but for the home New England Patriots to prevail with a final score of New England Patriots 27-18 Washington Commanders.
Expert Prediction: Who Wins?
Though the New England Patriots and Washington Commanders share one very basic characteristic — hope, fuelled by the presence of promising sophomore quarterbacks — they begin the 2025 NFL preseason in different places.
Washington knows exactly what it has in both its roster as a whole, and reigning Offensive Rookie of the Year Jayden Daniels. This preseason, for the Commanders, is all about building toward Week 1 in September and trying to build upon a fantastic 2024 season.
As such, Daniels will likely be a peripheral figure in August — made even more likely by the absence of his number one wide receiver Terry McLaurin, who remains held out amid a contract impasse.
New England, meanwhile, is starting over — again — under team legend Mike Vrabel and second-year quarterback Drake Maye. Last year’s third overall pick showed plenty of promise in an abbreviated 12-start campaign, but for the most part, it’s a fresh slate across the board for the Pats.
As a result, the Pats are likely to use their starters plenty in the preseason — a notion furthered by Vrabel’s old school style. With two teams on different tracks headed for a collision, an interesting Friday night battle looms.
Why the Washington Commanders Can Cover
As usual, a team’s chances in a preseason contest can be boiled down to the play of the backup quarterbacks. With so many passers well below NFL standard getting run in the preseason, the presence of even an adequate backup can be a huge difference. And, with or without Jayden Daniels in the lineup, the Commanders can count on competency.
In Marcus Mariota, the Commanders have a high level NFL backup who has flashed legitimately solid play at times in his career. The former college football phenom is a veteran of 74 NFL starts, and was a full-time starter as recently as 2022. Though Mariota has never quite reached the heights expected of him a decade ago, he is a known quantity at this point.
The Hawaiian passer is a steady decision maker and a safe pair of hands, even if it comes with a severely limited range of passing. Perhaps more importantly, against preseason defenses lacking cohesion, is Mariota’s ability to tuck the football and run.
A quarterback with the ability to escape the pocket and get downfield against a disorganized defense is a threat. Across his 10-year career, Mariota has averaged 5.7 yards per carry, and averaged nearly 34 yards per game on the ground in his last season as a starter.
In Mariota, Washington has one of the feistier backups across the league, and in turn he can make way for do-all journeyman Josh Johnson. Combined with head coach Dan Quinn’s ability to get his team ramped up for even an early August contest, it’s easy to see the Commanders’ route to covering on Friday night.
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Why the New England Patriots Can Cover
The New England Patriots have a pair of things going for them, as it relates to covering the spread on Friday night. The first is motivation. After several down years, Mike Vrabel is in place and dead set on dragging them back to success. In that regard, he’ll have all 90 players ready to play, regardless of the safety of their roster spot.
The second, and more important factor, is Drake Maye. While Washington has no real reason to give its starting passer, Jayden Daniels, any sort of extended run to start the preseason, the same can’t be said for New England. With a new cast of weapons, headlined by Stefon Diggs and TreVeyon Henderson, and a new offensive coordinator in Josh McDaniels, the Pats need all the reps they can get.
Washington’s starters might be one drive and out on Friday, while New England’s could very well play into the second quarter. That edge alone could help the Pats to cover. And, like Washington, they also have competent backup play to then turn to in Joshua Dobbs.
Like Mariota, Dobbs has a kind of dual threat ability that could wreak havoc on preseason defenses. Combined with a cushion provided by Maye and New England’s starters, the Patriots’ path to covering here and outright winning at home is clear.
Current Washington Commanders vs. New England Patriots Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
| Washington Commanders | +235 | +6.5 (-110) | 34.5 |
| New England Patriots | −290 | −6.5 (−108) | 34.5 |
How to Make Washington Commanders vs. New England Patriots Picks
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